SECONDORDER / V0.3 What would you like to explore? Describe an AI economy scenario, or choose the assumptions yourself.
Numerical assumptions are matched locally. Review the settings before running.
What if AI labor substitution reaches 40%? What if productivity rises by 60% and adoption is 20% per year? What if monthly UBI is $1,000 and AI profit tax is 20%?
View saved analysis (3) Scenario assumptions Rapid augmentation
Ask a new question Switch scenario Edit parameters
SCENARIO ANALYSIS / TEN YEAR PATHS
Explore the consequences. Compare paths. Trace the mechanisms. Test what changes the result.
Share analysis Download PDF ↗
Outcomes Sensitivity Mechanisms Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Rapid augmentation Ready to explore
Employment 60.4% −5.1 pp Year 10, vs. reference Household income $45.8k −$1.0k Year 10, vs. reference Company profit $60.0k +$23.1k Year 10, vs. reference Government balance −$7.1k −$0.9k Year 10, vs. reference
Compare scenarios
Employment Absolute values Difference from reference
Settings Employment Household income Consumption Company profit Government balance Wealth concentration Employment Household income Consumption Company profit Government balance Wealth concentration
103.4% 79.1% 54.8% 30.5% Slow adoption · 0: 95.0% Slow adoption · 1: 93.0% Slow adoption · 2: 90.7% Slow adoption · 3: 88.4% Slow adoption · 4: 86.2% Slow adoption · 5: 84.1% Slow adoption · 6: 82.2% Slow adoption · 7: 80.4% Slow adoption · 8: 78.7% Slow adoption · 9: 77.2% Slow adoption · 10: 75.7% Rapid augmentation · 0: 95.0% Rapid augmentation · 1: 87.3% Rapid augmentation · 2: 80.4% Rapid augmentation · 3: 75.0% Rapid augmentation · 4: 71.0% Rapid augmentation · 5: 67.9% Rapid augmentation · 6: 65.6% Rapid augmentation · 7: 63.9% Rapid augmentation · 8: 62.5% Rapid augmentation · 9: 61.3% Rapid augmentation · 10: 60.4% Rapid substitution · 0: 95.0% Rapid substitution · 1: 82.8% Rapid substitution · 2: 71.1% Rapid substitution · 3: 62.0% Rapid substitution · 4: 55.4% Rapid substitution · 5: 50.4% Rapid substitution · 6: 46.8% Rapid substitution · 7: 44.0% Rapid substitution · 8: 41.9% Rapid substitution · 9: 40.2% Rapid substitution · 10: 38.9% Year 0 Year 2 Year 4 Year 6 Year 8 Year 10
Inspect a year · 10 75.7% 60.4% 38.9%
01 / Largest proportional change Company profit +$23.1k Output revenue minus labor and AI operating costs gives profit. The AI tax applies to gains above baseline.
02 / Most sensitive setting AI labor substitution Employment: 64.5% → 56.5%
Sensitivity → 03 / Worth checking AI labor substitution Test this setting below while holding the others fixed.
One setting varies at a time; the others stay fixed. Bars show the tested outcome range, not probabilities or shares of variance.
Compare scenarios · 10 Export CSV ↓ Swipe sideways to compare scenarios.
Money: annual thousands of USD per household. Employment: modeled labor utilization. Concentration: model index points.
Model notes & definitions No external dataset is connected. Starting values and coefficients are illustrative.
Three actors, six outcomes, ten annual steps. Firms adopt AI. Productivity and household demand affect output; substitution and productivity affect jobs. Wages, benefits and UBI shape consumption. Taxes and transfers shape the budget and concentration index.
Employment is a modeled labor utilization rate relative to the initial labor capacity, not an official unemployment statistic. It is bounded to 35–99%. Household amounts and company profit are normalized per household, not a company financial forecast. Government balance is the annual change from the year-zero budget. Wealth concentration is a stylized index bounded to 35–90 points. Adoption next year = adoption + speed × (1 − 0.45 × AI tax) × (1 − adoption) Demand = 1 + 0.42 × (previous consumption / initial consumption − 1) Jobs = initial jobs × demand × (1 − substitution × adoption) / (1 + 0.55 × productivity × adoption) Household income = labor income + unemployment benefits + annual UBI + small profit dividend Consumption = 75% of household income; annual balance = change in labor tax + AI tax − benefits − UBI The coefficients and starting values are illustrative. Prices, migration, inflation, debt interest and new kinds of work are omitted. The wealth measure is an index, not a survey estimate. Change assumptions to examine the model, not to predict a date or country.
Report includes saved runs, assumptions, annual results, sensitivity ranges and methodology. Downloads as a PDF file.
stylized-1.1